Thursday, June 10, 2010
Eigen values and Eigen vectors
Birthday Matches
Let us suppose you have a class with about 35 students. Begin by asking
the class what they think the chances (or probability) are of two classmates
having the same birth date (month and day only) in their class of about
30+ students. Students usually begin to think about the likelihood of two
people having the same date out of a selection of 365 days (assuming no
leap year). Perhaps 2 out of 365?
The class will probably be surprised to learn that for a group of 35 the
probability that two members will have the same birth date is greater than
8 out of 10, or 80%
The probability that another student does not match the first student is:
364/365
The probability that a third student does not match the first and second
students is
:
363/365
The probability of all 35 students not having the same birth date is the
product of these probabilities:
(365/365)(364/365)(363/365)***(365-35)/(365)
Since the probability (q that two students in the group have the same
birth date and the probability (p) that two students in the group do not
have the same birth date is a certainty, the sum of those probabilities must
be 1. Thus, p + q = 1.
≈ 0.814383238874715
In other words, the probability that there will be a birth date match in a
randomly selected group of 35 people is somewhat greater than 80%. This
is quite unexpected when one considers there were 365 dates from which
to choose. Students may want to investigate the nature of the probability
function. Here are a few values to serve as a guide:
Number of people Probability of a birth
in group date match
10 0.1169481777110776
15 0.2529013197636863
20 0.4114383835805799
25 0.5686997039694639
30 0.7063162427192686
35 0.8143832388747152
40 0.891231809817949
45 0.9409758994657749
50 0.9703735795779884
55 0.9862622888164461
60 0.994122660865348
65 0.9976831073124921
70 0.9991595759651571
Students should notice how quickly almost-certainty is reached. With
about 60 students in a room, the table indicates that it is almost certain
(0.99) that two students will have the same birth date.
Were one to do this with the death dates of the first 35 presidents, one
would notice that two died on March 8 (Millard Fillmore in 1874 and
William H. Taft in 1930) and three presidents died on July 4 (John Adams
and Thomas Jefferson in 1826 and James Monroe in 1831).
Above all, this astonishing demonstration should serve as an eye-opener
about the inadvisability of relying entirely on intuitionTuesday, June 1, 2010
Linear Algebra
